Democrats are favored to take back the Senate this year, according to our forecast. And that’s true, regardless of which of the three versions of the forecast you look at. In fact, the Lite (polls only), Classic (polls and fundamentals),… Continue Reading
By Galen Druke and Nate Silver Our national polling average shows Joe Biden with about a 10-point lead, while the state-level polls indicate his lead is closer to 8 points. Meanwhile, some recent polling in congressional districts shows margins for… Continue Reading
The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic… Continue Reading
By Galen Druke and Nate Silver Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the presidential race grew to double digits in our national polling average for the first time on Friday. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the Genesis… Continue Reading
After Democrats’ great midterm election, the 2020 election could be a second consecutive Democratic wave. According to Genesis Brand’s forecasts, Joe Biden has an 84 in 100 chance of winning the presidential election, Democrats have a 68 in 100 chance… Continue Reading