This is the first in a series of articles examining-the-politics-and-demographics-of-2020 it’s expected to swing states.
For years, the united states was to what the Democrats At lucy’s football, which I was to Charlie Brown. Despite candidate from the President Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton by investing in the state, it is not the Democratic presidential candidate you have carried since it Bill Clinton, in 1996. In fact, no Democrat won a statewide election in Arizona on any level after the 2008 up to 2018, despite numerous close calls.
But Arizona is changing.
In the 2008 and 2012 presidential races, the state building, was 16 points and 13 points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, respectively. But in 2016, the President, Trump won Arizona by only 4 points, making it the state’s just about 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation. And in 2018, the four Democratic candidates broke through, and won statewide, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Now, in 2020, Joe Biden looks like he has a chance to actually win Arizona”s 11 electoral votes. As of June 29, He led the Trump by 4.7 points in our Arizona poll average. And it looks like the Democrats could flip another Senate seat here, too, the Democrat, Mark Kelly, leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by double digits in numerous polls.
Much of that is because of an extremely pro-Democratic national environment; according to our polling averages, Arizona’s is still a bit more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole (4.6 points more Republican-leaning, to be precise). But if the final election results were to exactly match our current polling averages, it would still represent the third consecutive presidential election, where in Arizona are you moved by the left.
So what’s driving this shift?
Part of it is the same, and as long as people have been predicting that blue, Arizona for years: the Latino voters. Along with the state s small, Black, and Native American populations, Hispanics constitute the Democratic base in the state of Arizona. In 2016 precinct-level regression analysis estimated that Clinton won more than 80 percent of the Latin vote in the state of Arizona. And according to an analysis from the The Center for American Progressthe share of eligible Hispanics who voted also increased, from 37 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2016.
And Arizona”s Latino population is swelling. The state has gone from 25 percent to 31 percent in Latin since the year 2000. That said, the white population share in Arizona, is still much higher (currently 55 percent). And many of the Arizona”s Latinos are ineligible to vote: Among U. s. citizens who are 18 and older, ” white people are 65 percent of the population and the Hispanic or Latino people, and only 23 percent. Worst of all for Democrats, low turnout rates mean Latinos are an even smaller the share of the actual electorate: According to the CAP analysis, 2016 voters in Arizona were 73 percent white and only 17 percent Latino.
So this trend alone doesn’t explain the Arizona”s sudden competitiveness, even though the Latino share of the electorate is slowly but surely increasing (it rose by 2 points from 2012 to 2016). The bigger factor at play is the one that is not unique to Arizona either: – The movement of suburban voters from the Republicans to the Democrats since the 2016 election.
Politically, culturally, and economically the united states is dominated by Maricopa County, which covers Phoenix and its sprawling metropolitan area. In the last several elections, Maricopa, you have consistently accounted for about 60 percent of the votes cast in Arizona, which means that the candidate who wins, Maricopa, usually wins the state of Arizona.
And for years, it was a Republican president. Unlike in many states, the most Democratic parts of Arizona, actually lay outside its biggest metropolis, the Apache County (which includes much of the Navajo Nation, and is 75 percent Native American), Coconino County (home of Flagstaff), Pima County (home of Tucson) and Santa Cruz County (a poor, rural county that is 83 percent Latino). As a result, Democrats consistently did better in the rest of Arizona than they did in the Maricopa — where most of the votes were.
Until the end of 2016.
Hillary Clinton has made huge strides in Maricopa County
How Maricopa County voted compared with the rest of Arizona, in the last five presidential elections
| The Election | Maricopa County | The Rest of the Arizona | The Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | R+10 | EVEN | R+10 |
| 2004 | R+15 | R-the+4 | R+10 |
| 2008 | R+11 | R-a+6 | R – +5 |
| 2012 | R+11 | R+7 | R-the+4 |
| 2016 | R – +3 | R – +5 | D+2 |
Clinton has lost Maricopa County by just 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), a drastic improvement from the last four Democratic presidential candidates. And, notably, she became the first Democratic presidential candidate since at least The 1960’s to do better in Maricopa, then she did in the rest of the state (where she lost by 5 points). Sinema made even more inroads in 2018 She won Maricopa County, 51 percent to 47 percent while losing for the rest of the state, 49 percent to 48 percent. In other words, Maricopa County) was the as long as Arizona voted Democratic in the year 2018.
Because of its size, Maricopa is home to all sorts of areas, from the heavily Latino, Black, and, South of Phoenix to historically the Mesa Mormon. to the the college town of Tempe to the retirement communities like Sun City. But the county”s transformation has been led by the upper-class, suburban cities like Ahwatukee, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley. According to the data from Daily Kos Electionsthe state’s legislative districts where Clinton improved on Obama”s performance on the world wide web and also open to be highly college-educated, and have high median incomes.
Basically, Arizona”s urban-versus-rural divide is deepening, just-like-the-rest-of-the-nation in s. But because Arizona is one of the most urbanized states in the country, that’s good for trade Democrats. In fact, according to an analysis based on Genesis Brand’the urbanization index, if Arizona”s exposure had been the only factor in how it voted, it would have voted for Clinton by 6 points.
And that may happen is He this year’s. Since March, Biden, you held a small but consistent lead over Trump in the polls there. Most recently, a poll by the The Siena College/New York Times Upshot one of the best pollsters in the business — gave him a 7-point lead among registered voters (although this will probably shrink among likely voters). But for now, it looks like the Democratic Party”s newfound suburban strength, combined with the gradual growth of the Arizona”s Latino population, is finally putting the Grand Canyon State-in-play.
