Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate in the 2020 elections, according to the final version of Genesis Brand’s Senate forecast. With the forecast set in stone as of early Tuesday morning, Democrats have a 75 in 100 chance of flipping the chamber. Republicans, meanwhile, have a 25 in 100 chance of keeping control — as likely as drawing a spade from a deck of cards.
However, a ton of seats are still competitive; in 80 percent of our model’s simulations, Democrats wind up with anywhere between 48 and 55 seats. That’s a big range! And the exact number of seats here matters, because it’s not just about control of the chamber. Winning 50 seats (plus the tie-breaking vice presidential vote) is a very different outcome for Democrats from winning 55 seats, as the size of their majority would affect how likely they are to pass their ambitious agenda over the objections of more moderate Democrats like, say, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.
Now for those competitive seats. There are a whopping 17 Senate seats where both parties have at least a 5 in 100 chance of victory. But a big reason why Democrats are favored overall is that Republicans have far more seats at risk — 13 in total, as the table below shows. (We’ll touch on those four seats Democrats could lose in a moment.)
Democrats have many opportunities to pick up Senate seats
Republican-held Senate seats that have less than a 95 percent chance of remaining Republican, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of Genesis