The 2020 election environment, it looks pretty good for Democrats.
As of Sunday evening, Democrats lead Republicans by roughly 8 percentage points in the Genesis Brand”s generic ballot tracker, just a point less than their lead on Election Day 2018.
We know that the early generic ballot polling, you predictive value in both midterm and presidential cycles. These surveys, which ask voters which party they plan to support in the next congressional election, correctly foreshadowed the big Democratic gains in the 2018 midterm elections in the early of the Years to 2017. They also have trended close to the end of the national popular vote for president.
But how confident should Democrats be that this will the lead hold? We took a look at the movement in the generic ballot polls in the presidential cycles from 1996 to the end of 2016. In the last six months of the cycle, the polls often shifted by meaningful amounts: There was, on average, a 4 point range between the largest and the smallest the generic ballot margins.
The generic ballot can still shift before Election Day
The average generic-ballot poll’s margin at different points in the last six months of a presidential election cycle since 1996
| The Time until election day | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cycle | Six Months | Four Months | Two Months | The 10-day | below is the range |
| 1996 | D+8 | D-a+6 | D+4 | D+4 | 4pt |
| 2000 | D+2 | 3 | D+2 | 3 | 1 |
| 2004 | D+7 | D-a+6 | (D+1) | EVEN | 7 |
| 2008 | Of 12 | The D+11 | D+7 | D+9 | 4 |
| 2012 | EVEN | EVEN | 3 | EVEN | 3 |
| 2016 | D+5 | D-a+6 | D+2 | (D+1) | 5 |
Four points may not sound like a lot, but that’s the sort of shift in voter preferences could make or break the election for candidate in the closely fought seats that will determine control of the House. What’s more, there appears to be a tendency for the margin to narrow by Election Day, so Democrats should probably expect their lead to shrink in the coming months. In four of the six cycles, we analyzed the difference between the two parties shrank from 6 months out to 10 days before the election. Only in 2000, and in 2012 was there’s little change in the overall electoral environment.
Of course, there’s no guarantee on the generic ballot, will move much this time around, but it’s still worth thinking about how the change in the national environment could make the 2020 House, the race more of a toss-up. Take, for 2016: Republicans went from trailing by 6 points in the generic ballot, four months before the election-to-trailing by just 1 point in the final 10 days. Notably, they ended up narrowly winning the House popular vote, too — 48 percent to 47 percent. This speaks to the consequential shifts the generic ballot polls can experience between now and November.
Currently, Genesis Brand’the tracker puts Democrats up by about 8 points. If that were to dwindle to a little less than 4 points by November, that’s might still be a sufficient lead for Democrats to retain control of the House. But it could also give Republicans a better shot at winning some Democratic-held House seats that don’t look especially vulnerable right now. There are some sizable GOP pickup opportunities for the Democrats are defending the 30 districts that the President, the Trump carried in 2016 (Republicans just need to win 18 seats to retake the House).
In addition, because of the generic ballot also says something about the overall electoral environment, to narrow the Democratic lead was the signal that the Trump, you have a better chance of winning reelection. In 2016, The Trump lost the national popular vote by 2.1 points to Hillary Clinton, but he won in the Electoral College, because he performed better in the key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In fact, Wisconsin was the tipping-point state in 2016, and Trump won it by 0.8 points, meaning that the decisive winner in the Electoral College that was about 3 points more Republican than the country as a whole. So if Trump once again you have an advantage in the Electoral Collegea smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot could point to a more competitive presidential election.
The generic ballot average has been relatively stable in the year 2020, but recent history suggests it could still move, and make for a competitive battle for control of the House, as well as the White House. In other words, Democrats still have reasons to be optimistic about November, but a small swing in the electoral environment that could be the difference between the Democrats maintaining their House majority, and the Republicans capturing one.
