While the presidential contest understandably gets the lion’s share of election coverage, don’t forget that all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will also be up for grabs in November. And Democrats currently look like decent favorites to hold onto the majority they won in the 2018 midterm election.
Currently, Democrats hold 233 seats to the Republicans’ 196, giving them a sizable 37-seat advantage. (There are also five vacancies — four seats previously held by the GOP and one held by Democrats.) That means that if Republicans hold onto the four vacant but solidly GOP seats they previously controlled, they will need to pick up 18 seats to win a majority.
But that might be difficult for House Republicans. The electoral environment currently favors the Democrats, and Republicans have more open seats to defend. Median race ratings from the three major election handicappers — The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball — rate 222 seats as safely, likely or lean Democratic, and 193 seats as safely, likely or lean Republican. The other 20 seats are toss-ups that could go either way.
Democrats have the upper hand in the House
Competitiveness of House races by the party that currently holds the seat, as rated by three major election handicappers