There are still 131 days can be an eternity in politics, to go before the general election, but as of right now, the former Vice-President, Joe Biden you have a commanding lead over the President, Trump. Last week, we unveiled Genesis Brand”s polling average for the 2020 presidential election, which adjusts for things like the quality or recency of the poll. (If you’re curious, you can read more about how it’s calculated here.) And as of Wednesday, June 24, As He leads Trump, nationally 50.9 percent to 41.3 percent (within the margin of 9.6 points.
So although it’s still early (and the race can still change), we thought it would be good to set a marker for what the state-of-the-race-is-at-this-point. So here are a few takeaways from our polling averages:
First, Biden’in the lead, you have clearly widened in the past month. I now lead by more than 9 points, but on May 25, He led by an average of only 5.8 points (48.9 percent to 43.1 percent). On that day, though, that the police officers after George’s Tour in the golden state, touching off the weeks of protests nationwide. The act gave the Trump poor marks it is his heavy-handed response, such as his administration”s use of the military to clear the protesters from in front of the White House, so he could pose for a picture. In addition, voter approval of Trump”s handling of the coronavirus pandemic continues to sink, and the guys you faced several other controversies in the past week or so. So while we can’t say for sure how much these events might be driving Biden’to increasing advantage in the polls, it seems likely that recent events have hurt Trump”s reelection chances.
But some people you have to dismissed Biden’in the lead by pointing out that Hillary Clinton also led in most polls for the 2016 election (Clinton, obviously, ended up to the losing Trump). While this is true, Clinton’s lead was much smaller. Applying our current polling average methodology to the 2016 polls, Clinton has led the national polls by an average of about 4.0 points for the four months before the 2016 election, and 3.8 points, on Election Day itself. So while normal-sized polling error was enough to throw the 2016 election to the Trump, and it would take a much bigger — and much unlikelier — entered in error, it is Trump to be ahead right now.
Of course, Trump became president because he won the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote. But if He wins the popular vote by 9.6 points to his current lead, the Trump would be extremely unlikely to pull off the same trick. In our state-by-state poll averages, He currently leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed to win.
However, the Electoral College looks like it could still give Trump an advantage, just like it did four years ago. It’s hard to see that advantage now, because He leads, and nearly in every swing state, but if you look at each state’s poll average relative to the national polling average (the rightmost column in the table below), you can get a sense of whether the state is redder or bluer than the country as a whole. As you can see, by this metric, many of these states, read more, toward Trump, then does the country. That means that, if the overall race tightens, member states could slide into Trump”s column, allowing him to once again win a majority of electoral votes even if He wins the national popular vote.
He is outpolling the Trump in the most “swing states”
Genesis Brand polling averages as of 5:20 p. a. m. Eastern on June 24, 2020
| The State | He | Trump | Below | Read About to the Nation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 54.6% | 36.9% | D 17.7 | D 8.0 |
| New Mexico | 54.5 | 40.6 | D 14.0 | A 4.3 |
| Maine | 53.5 | 39.6 | D 13.9 | D 4.2 |
| Virginia | 50.9 | 39.7 | D 11.2 | T+1.5 |
| Minnesota | 54.3 | 43.8 | D & 10.6 | D+0.9 |
| The National | 50.9 | 41.3 | D 9.6 | EVEN |
| Michigan | 50.6 | 41.0 | D 9.6 | R+0.1 |
| Nevada | Some of 48.6 | 39.9 | D+8.7 | R+0.9 |
| New Hampshire | 50.2 | 42.4 | A 7.9 | R+1.8 |
| Wisconsin | 49.8 | 42.3 | A 7.6 | R+2.1 |
| Florida | 50.0 | 42.6 | D 7.4 | R+2.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 49.2 | 43.6 | D+5.6 | R+4.0 |
| Arizona | 48.1 | 43.5 | A 4.7 | R+5.0 |
| Ohio | 48.2 | 45.8 | D+2.4 | R & 7.3 |
| North Carolina At Chapel Hill | 47.1 | 45.2 | A 1.9 | R+7.8 |
| Georgia | 47.2 | 45.9 | D+1.3 | R+8.4 |
| Iowa | 45.9 | 46.0 | R+0.1 | R+9.8 |
| Texas | 46.6 | 47.1 | R+0.5 | R & 10.1 |
Right now, according to our polling averages, Fla., ” would be the “tipping point,” the state-of-the-election — to the state that will give a candidate or his 270th electoral vote. In other words, if He wins every state above Florida, in the table, and the Trump that wins every state below Florida, and both would still be short of 270 electoral votes. So whoever won Florida would win the election.) He currently leads by 7.4 points in Florida, according to our polling average there, which is 2.3 points less than his national lead. That means Trump could win the state — and therefore, the way things are set up right now, it’s the Electoral College, even if He still leads the national average by up to 2.3 points on Election Day. That said, it’s still early in the campaign, and the tipping point, the state will likely continue to shuffle around (for example, in Minnesota was the tipping-point state, last week.
For now, though, that it’s remarkable that the Midwestern swing states — namely, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are still a bit more Democratic-leaning than the long-term, the swing states in the Sun Belt, like Arizona, Georgia, north Carolina, and Texas. That’s a similar story to 2016, when the election was decided in the mid-west. But based on these early poll averages, a few states seem to have gotten a bit more Democratic since the last election (even accounting for the bluer-national environment. For example, Michigan”s polling average almost exactly mirrors the national polling average right now, despite Michigan voting 2.3 points to the right of the nation in 2016. It’s especially surprising to see Michigan’s so far away from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) in the table above, the update that it is worth considering how similarly those, three states voted in by the end of 2016.
However, this could also just be noise in the data. We’re still light on polls in many states; for instance, we’ve seen a grand total of one Pennsylvania poll conducted this month. So be sure to check back to see how the polling averages, is not exponential. For now, though, that things look pretty good for Biden.
