On May 12, the REPUBLICANS won two special congressional elections handily: Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democratic Assemblywoman, Christy Smith By 55 percent to 45 percent in the California’s 25th District) and Republican state Sen. Tom Tiffany, beat his Democratic opponent, Wausau School Board President, Tricia Zunker, By 57 percent to 43 percent in the Wisconsin’s 7th District. (The win was especially important, as it lowered the number of House seats Republicans need to flip in order to take back control in November from the 18th to the 17th.
These special elections may also throw cold water on the idea that 2020 will be another “blue wave” election. Although you shouldn’t infer too much from any one special election — particularly a strong or weak candidates or idiosyncratic local issues can matter more in the individual race — the special election in the aggregate you have to historically been predictive of the political-national environment. In other words, a party that consistently punches above its weight in special elections tends to have a really good November.
So what are the special elections saying so far about the 2020? Counting the two earlier this month, there have now been six federal special elections so far this cycle — not a huge sample size, but enough to detect whether Republicans or Democrats are consistently overperforming the seat”s baseline partisanship. Except, so far, at the end of the vote-share margin in the average in the special election has not been any more Democratic-leaning (or, for that matter, a Republican-leaning) than the seat”s Genesis Brand partisan to read the score.
No party has an edge in special elections this cycle
How the final vote margin compared with the seat”s Genesis Brand partisan lean in federal special elections so far
| Year | Date | Seat | Partisan Lean | Cast Your Vote Below | Below Is The Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | May 21 | Pennsylvania 12th | The R+35 | * R+a 36 | R+1 |
| Sept. 10 | North Carolina 3rd | R+24 | R+24 | 0 | |
| Sept. 10 | North Carolina 9th† | At R+14 | R – +2 | Of 12 | |
| 2020 | April 28 | Maryland is the 7th | Of the 51 | T+49 | R – +2 |
| May 12 | California, 25th* | EVEN | R+10 | R+10 | |
| May 12 | In Wisconsin’s 7th* | The R+18 | At R+14 | D+4 | |
| The Average | R-a+6 | R-a+6 | 0 |
In four of the six elections, the final result was quite close to the district”s partisan lean. And the other two races, pointed in opposite directions. Republicans did 10 points better in the California and the 25th then we d expect them to in a neutral political environment, while Democrats did 12 points better than their baseline in the North Carolina and 9th in the over-the election last year. And these results can easily be explained by the strength of the candidates. Both Garcia and Give McCready, the Democratic candidate in the North Carolina and 9th, were moderates, veterans and prolific fundraisers.
By contrast, in 2017 and 2018, Democrats routinely posted excellent numbers. Even when they didn’t win, they performed far better than the seat”s baseline partisanship would predict. In the 11 federal special elections before November 2018, and the average margin swing between the seat”s final margin and its partisan to read it was a 17-point toward Democrats.
Democrats overperformed last cycle
How the final vote margin compared with the seat”s Genesis Brand partisan lean in federal special elections
| Year | Date | Seat | Partisan Lean | Cast Your Vote Below | Below Is The Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | April 4 | California, 34th* | D 68 | D 87 | Of the 20 |
| April 11 | Kansas city 4th | The R+29 | R-a+6 | Of the 23 | |
| May 25 | Montana’s at-large) | The R+18 | R-a+6 | Of 12 | |
| June 20 | Georgia 6th | R+15 | R-the+4 | The D+11 | |
| June 20 | South Carolina 5th | R+20 | R – +3 | Of the 17 | |
| Nov. 7 | Utah’s 3rd | R & a 39 | R+32 | D-a+6 | |
| Dec. 12 | The Alabama Senate | R+27 | D+2 | Of the 28 | |
| 2018 | On march 13 | Pennsylvania, 18th | R+21 | D D+0.3 | Of the 22 |
| April 24 | In Arizona’s 8th | R+26 | R – +5 | Of the 22 | |
| June 30 | Texas, 27th* | The R+29 | R+21 | D+8 | |
| Aug. 7 | Ohio on the 12th | At R+14 | R+1 | D+13 | |
| The Average | R+15 | (D+1) | Of the 17 |
In the year 2018, this ended up foreshadowing the the great of the general election for Democrats, who won the national House popular vote by 8.6 percentage points. If the 2020 follows the same pattern, we could be in a neutral political environment for the fall.
However, the “if” is the operative word there. “Special elections are just one indicator of the national mood, and the others are notably rosier for Democrats. Polls of the generic congressional ballot, for instance, give Democrats an average of the lead is almost 8 percentage points — is comparable to what they say in the year 2018. In addition, most polls give presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden of solid lead over the President, Trump, and the Democrats have enjoyed some incredible Senate polls lately. Republicans are also retiring from Congress at a far faster rate than the Democrats. Finally, the economy is in a tailspin, which has been historically the bad news for the president’s reelection chances.
So maybe this year will be like 2002, when a special election also had the facility of the swing to zero, but Republicans won the national House popular vote by 5 points in the mini-waveform. The special relationship between the elections and the political environment isn’t perfect. Still, the current cycle”s inconsistent in the special-election results should make us more uncertain about which party will have the advantage in November. In the year 2018, virtually every indicator under the sun and pointed to the door that the blue wave. This year, we’re getting mixed signals.
