Some Democrats are worried think of former Vice-President, Joe Biden’s the ability to appeal to younger voters. After all, the presumptive Democratic nominee struggled immensely to win the young voters in the primary: From the Iowa caucuses through the March 17 primaries, He won just 22 percent of the vote among those younger than 45 years old, according to the exit polls, compared to 51 percent among those 45 and older.
Yet for all the concern, He isn’t actually doing that much worse among younger voters than Hillary Clinton did this in the 2016 election. Looking at data from about 90 national polls conducted since April 1, Biden’the margins among different groups of younger voters is about the same or just a tad worse — than Clinton”s margins were four years ago. (Pollsters don’t use the same age bracket, so there is some overlap in the different age groups.)
Biden’a young voter support, and only slightly trails Clinton’s
Comparison of the United Clinton”s 2016 vote margin and the average margin in the national head-to-head polls between Joe Biden and the President, the Trump since April 1, by the different age groups
| Age group | Clinton and the 2016 facility | He 2020 the margin | The difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| The 18-to-29 | +22.9 | +24.1 | +1.2 |
| The 18-to-34 | +21.7 | +19.0 | -2.7 |
| The 18-to-44 | +16.7 | +16.1 | -0.6 |
| The 30-to-44 | +12.1 | +10.9 | -1.2 |
| The 35-to-44 | +8.8 | +9.6 | +0.8 |
| The 35-to-49 | +7.9 | +5.9 | -2.0 |
For instance, Clinton won voters under the age of 45 and by about 17 percentage points, according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Studythe survey of more than 60,000 voters organized by Harvard University and administered by the city, as He led by an average of 16 points among this group in the polls conducted in the last two months. In fact, in each of the age groups we looked at, Biden’, the margin ranged from about 1 point better than Clinton”s to just 3 points worse.
In other words, He may not excite young voters, but this isn’t you do not have permission going to be an Achilles’ heel for his campaign either, especially the upgrade that it is worth considering He may be in a stronger position and with older voters.
There was a fair amount of variation in how He did among younger voters in the polls that we looked at, though it. For example, while it Could Supply, and the city both, found He leading among voters aged 18-to-29-by an average of about 20 points over the past two months, they differed quite a bit when it came to voters aged 30 to 44. The Morning Consult gave Biden an average of the lead to 6 points, compared to YouGov’to 12 points. And although the Date is Progress”s surveys gave Biden an average of the lead to 23 points among those aged 18 to 34, Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus only gave him an edge of 12 points across its tracking polls are in that age group. But it’s hard to unpack what some of these differences might mean for Biden in the ultimately it may have less to do with the different pollsters pick up different trends, and more with today’s methodologieshouse , the links, and the larger margins of error often seen in the smaller sample size of like age groups.
Still, even though what He isn’t doing poorly with young voters, these polls don’t hint at whether he will have a turnout problem in November, which is arguably Biden”s biggest concern when it comes to young voters. Younger voters overwhelmingly read them Democracy, but they also turn out at much lower rates, older than the voters: Only 43 percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 voted in in 2016, compared with 71 percent of voters 60 and older, according to the the census data compiled by the United States Elections Project. It’s not impossible to imagine that the lack of enthusiasm for Biden, and dislike of Trump leading to low participation among younger voters. For instance, in the The May Yahoo-News/Uae-survey of registered voters found that 15 percent of respondents under 30 in the preferred third-party candidate to He or Trump, which was the highest share of any age group (the next-highest was 6 percent among 30 – to 44-year-olds).
Then again, it’s possible that young voters’ distaste for the Trump could help, He, with the younger voters in fact you don’t like the president. The The Harvard Institute of Politics ‘ Youth Poll found in March that 66 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 disapproved of the Trump”s job performance, and the May Fox News poll found 56 percent of voters under 45 disapproved. In other words, if November is treated as a recovery on Trump”s performance, it could push more young voters into Biden”s column, even if they aren’t an enthused by his candidacy.
What’s more, He may be able to overcome his shortcomings with a younger Act, if his numbers among older voters to hold true. It’s not just our analysis that finds Biden outperforming Clinton among older voters. The Survey data from the Thanks to the Fund + the WORLD Nationscape project also suggests that Biden”s strength among older voters isn’t a short-term, coronavirus-induced flash-in-the-pan in the other poll, He you led the Trump among voters 45 and older since last fall. These numbers could be central, too, because older Americans will likely make up a large majority of voters in 2012 and 2016, voters 45 and older constituted a little over 60 percent of the electorate, according to Census Bureau data.
Of course, He will still want to gin up enthusiasm among young voters. Tellingly, his campaign already took a page out of Sen. Bernie Sanders”s playbook by don’s plan to forgive college debt among the many low-and middle-income borrowers. But even if He can’t improve on Clinton’s, 2016 performance among young voters, polling thus far suggests he’s not really doing that much worse than she did. Biden’the problem with the younger voters might not be an exaggerated one at best.
