There are different “gap” in American politics, but one that has consistently shown up in the recent presidential election is the age gap. That is, younger voters tend to vote more Democratic, and older voters tend to vote more Republican.
In 2016, for instance, the President, Trump performed best among voters 65 years and older. He also won among those between the ages of 45 and 64. So looking ahead to November, you might expect Trump to once again do well with older voters. However, recent public polls — and the president’s own private poll — suggest that Trump may be doing worse among older voters against former Vice-President, Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee.
In national head-to-head polls conducted since April 1, Trump is barely breaking even with that, most older Americans — and in some age groups, he’s even trailing He’s by as much as 1.4 points (see, for 45 – to 64-year-olds). (Pollsters don’t all use the same age bracket, so there is some overlap in the different age categories.)
Trump’s polling is worse with older voters than in 2016
Comparison of the Donald Trump”s 2016 vote margin and the average margin in the national head-to-head polls between Trump and Joe Biden since April 1, by the different age groups
| Age group | Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump 2020 below | The difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| The 45-to-64 | +4.0 | -1.4 | -5.4 |
| The 50-to-64 | +5.8 | +0.6 | -5.2 |
| 55+ | +9.9 | -0.4 | -10.3 |
| 65+ | +13.3 | -1.0 | -14.3 |
The most striking shift, though that is among voters age 65 and older. Four years ago, Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Studythe survey of more than 60,000 voters organized by Harvard University and administered by the city. But now He narrowly leads Trump, 48 percent to 47 percent, based on an average of 48 in the national polls that included in that age group. If those figures hold until November, they would represent a seismic shift in the voting behavior of America’s oldest voters.
The last Democratic nominee who won voters 65 and older was Al Gore in 2000, according to the national exit poll data. But at the time, that was the trend. Older Americans — those who came of age during the Great Depression and the New Deal era, the period in which the Democratic Party was dominant — were disproportionately Democratic-leaning in the late 1990s and early 2000s. And political science, has found evidence that, in party loyalties developed at young age can persist over the course of a person’s life.
But it’s not just among voters 65 and older, where the Trump is slipping. He’s also fallen almost as far among voters 55 and older. Trump is essentially tie, with Biden among that age group, and even after winning these voters by 10 points by 2016, 53 percent to 43 percent, according to the CCES. Trump”s numbers have also fallen, with 45 – to 64-year-olds, as well as a 50 – to-64-year-olds (an alternate category employed by many pollsters), but the last Democrat to win the 45 – to 64-year-olds that was Barack Obama in 2008 — albeit barely, with 50 percent to 49 percent.
We don’t have as much state-level polling to work with, but there’s evidence that He is also doing better with older voters in some in key swing states. To Take two recent surveys from Florida state with a one of the oldest populations in the country. The A Fox News poll from mid-April found He, with a slim 3-point lead over Trump and running dead even among voters 45 and older, while the Quinnipiac University’s survey from the same period found in He up to 4 points overall in Florida, and leading Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent among voters 65 and older. If this ‘holds’, this would represent a big swing from 2016, when the Trump won the Florida voters 45 and older by 13 points, and those 65 and older by 22 points, according to the CCES.
But that’s a big if. Polls can — and will shift between now and Election Day. We averaged a large number of national polls in our analysis (54 in total), but there was still a wide range in the margins from pollster to pollster. Part of that comes down to the challenges of the data for estimating subgroups like different age groups — which have smaller sample size, and larger margins of error. But there were also sizable differences from pollster to pollster, even those using a large sample size. For instance, in early April, the The Pew Research Center found He trailing, Trump by 9 points among those 65 and older, more in line with Trump”s 2016 margin. But throughout April and early May, the Morning Consult found He and the Trump time to think of tie, on average, among that same age group. Democrats also tend to poll better among registered voters than among likely voters, the group most pollsters are interviewing now, so Biden’the overall lead might be smaller among those most likely to vote in November.
Still, an average of recent tracking polls from the Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus one of the only pollsters currently using a likely-voter screen — you, He-up-points-by-2 and among those 65 and older, and up by about 7 percentage points among the 45 – to 64-year-olds. So I’ve got holds on to a small lead, but nonetheless, it’s still a sign that Trump is currently underwater with older voters. Going forward, we’ll keep a careful eye on things to see if this shift in voter sentiment holds. Because if it does it could have a major impact on the outcome in November.
