There are different “gap” in American politics, but one that has consistently shown up in the recent presidential election is the age gap. That is, younger voters tend to vote more Democratic, and older voters tend to vote more Republican.
In 2016, for instance, the President, Trump performed best among voters 65 years and older. He also won among those between the ages of 45 and 64. So looking ahead to November, you might expect Trump to once again do well with older voters. However, recent public polls — and the president’s own private poll — suggest that Trump may be doing worse among older voters against former Vice-President, Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee.
In national head-to-head polls conducted since April 1, Trump is barely breaking even with that, most older Americans — and in some age groups, he’s even trailing He’s by as much as 1.4 points (see, for 45 – to 64-year-olds). (Pollsters don’t all use the same age bracket, so there is some overlap in the different age categories.)
Trump’s polling is worse with older voters than in 2016
Comparison of the Donald Trump”s 2016 vote margin and the average margin in the national head-to-head polls between Trump and Joe Biden since April 1, by the different age groups
| Age group | Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump 2020 below | The difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| The 45-to-64 | +4.0 | -1.4 | -5.4 |
| The 50-to-64 | +5.8 | +0.6 | -5.2 |
| 55+ | +9.9 | -0.4 | -10.3 |