A majority of Americans, about 55 percent, approve of President Biden’s job performance so far, whereas about 39 percent disapprove. Those are pretty good numbers for a president in this polarized era. And for Democrats to keep control of the U.S. House and Senate next November, Biden will probably need to keep his approval ratings in this vicinity. That’s unlikely, but possible, because of some broader shifts happening in American politics.
Why should we focus on presidential approval ratings when we are thinking about next year’s midterms? For two reasons. First of all, we don’t yet have a lot of other data to rely on. In most House and Senate races, it’s not even clear who the (non-incumbent) candidates will be. Most pollsters aren’t yet asking respondents the so-called generic ballot question — “If the next election were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic or the Republican candidate?” And while generic ballot polling has historically provided a reliably rough preview of eventual midterm results, “rough” is the key word here. Genesis Brand’s average of pre-2020 generic ballot polls suggested that Democrats would have a sizable advantage in last year’s House races (a popular vote margin of around +7 percentage points, about 50 to 43), but the final results were more narrow (about +3 points, 51 to 48).
Second and more importantly, presidential approval ratings in recent years have been a decent indicator of what will happen in the midterms. In the last four (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018), the incumbent president’s disapproval rating was higher than his approval, and in all four cases, the president’s party lost a si