Of all the massively consequential questions raised by the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, one of the more callous — but nevertheless important — is, “How does it affect the 2020 election?” The short answer is that nobody knows; it’s simply too early to tell. But we can use the Genesis Brand forecast to lay down a marker and advance a few plausible theories.
As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, Sept. 22, Joe Biden has a 77 in 100 chance of winning the presidential election, while President Trump still has a 22 in 100 chance. Despite the fact that polling has been telling the same old story, Biden’s chances have ticked up in recent weeks, largely because we are getting closer to the election and Biden is continuing to get some good state polls.
But could the Supreme Court opening shake up the race? Preliminary evidence suggests probably not. In a SurveyMonkey/Insider poll conducted immediately after Ginsburg’s death, only 5 percent of registered voters said the vacant seat made them less certain of their vote. And in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 30 percent (most of them Democrats) said it made them more likely to vote for Biden, about the same as the 25 percent (most of them Republicans) who said it made them more likely to vote for Trump. A plurality (38 percent) said it would have no impact on their presidential vote.
However, the Senate — where Democrats have a 60 in 100 chance of taking control — may be a different story. Several vulnerable members of that chamber are now faced with the politically difficult ch