For the last three weeks, the President Trump”s approval rating and you have steadily ticked downward. It now sits at 41.1 percent, according to Genesis Brand”s presidential approval tracker.
This is remarkable, because it is the lowest Trump”s approval rating has been since the House of Representatives was in the midst of conducting its impeachment inquiry in November, 2019 at the latest.
It’s not exactly hard to unpack not much they can do this is happening now. Trump has gotten consistently low marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and the one-Act so that you don’t approve of how he’s answer-to-the-protests following the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by police officers last month.
The question is: Just how much does this latest shift approval-in numbers matter?
Trump, of course, you had an approval rating of 41 percent before. In fact, it has hovered between 40 and 45 percent for most of his presidency, making his approval rating in the steadiest of any president since World War II.
So it’s an open question where Trump”s approval rating will go from here. It could have already hit its nadir, given how consistent the upper and lower bounds that have been, in which case it might continue steadily along at this level. Or it could slide even further and match some of his most unpopular moments of the president. For example, Trump”s approval rating hovered between 37 and 38 percent in the last two months of the year 2017, following his “both sides” response to a white supremacist violence in the Charlottesville, va. Of course, it’s also possible his numbers could tick back up. Remember that, prior to this downturn, Trump”s approval was the actually highest it had been since he took office in January, 2017 — 45-to-46 percent, on average — likely thanks to a “rally-around-the-flag” done in response to his initial handling of the coronavirus crisis.
The important takeaway at this point is, though, that is that for all the talk of Trump being “Teflon Don“I-it isn’t actually indestructible. The downward movement in his approval rating belies the notion that nothing matters when it comes to the public opinion of this president — his actions and events can, in fact, affect his standing. And the reason is that his reelection chances could now be in real danger.
We don’t know if Trump”s approval will fall below 40 percent this time around, but it will matter whether Trump”s approval is closer to 40 percent or 45 percent in November. Take the 2018 midterm elections. Then, Trump”s approval rating was just shy of 42 percent in our tracker. That was a significant update that it is worth considering that 90 percent of the voters who disapproved of the president, backed by Democrats in their House to vote, according to the exit polls.
And already, with the Trump”s approval rating slipping below the 42-percent-once again, we’re seeing average numbers for him, in the head-to-head polls against the Democrats’ presumptive nominee, former Vice-President, Joe Biden. Throughout April and May, He led the Trump by about 4-to-6-points-in – RealClearPolitics’ average of national pollsbut since the start of the protests around Floyd”s death, Biden’, the lead has increased to 8 points.
The Other data points in recent national polls hint at how Trump”s poor approval rating could hurt him in November, too. First, The CNN/SSRS”s early June survey found Biden winning 92 percent of voters who disapproved of the Trump, which is roughly in line with what the year 2018, exit polls found. Similarly, Emerson College found Biden winning by 91 percent of those who disapproved of the Trump in its early Years the poll. What these two polls suggest is that even if Trump gets overwhelming support from those who do approve of him — in particular, Republicans an approval rating of 40 percent probably won’t be enough to win, especially if He is winning 90 percent of the voters who disapprove of the Trump, as this is a much larger group.
This is doubly true if independent voters are so turned off by Trump, as they be backed by him, 4 points, by 2016, according to the exit polls. And there’s a reason to believe Trump might already be in trouble with independents. That’s the CNN poll found, for instance, Trump’s trailing by 11 points with this group, as the The Monmouth University poll conducted in late May and early June had Trump down by 16 points. Other surveys have found the Trump slightly in better shape, with four independent, although still trailing Biden. For instance, in an early The June poll from NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist the had behind him by 4 points, and the latest the survey from The Economist/the city had him down by 3 points. The margins here, here, here matter, but at this stage, the polls generally agree that Trump”s losing among independents, which isn’t good sign for his reelection chances.
Of course, with roughly five months to go until Election Day, Trump you to the team for his approval rating to bounce back, just as it has previously. Trump”s actions, all we’ve seen, can negatively affect his audience, but it’s also within his power to boost them. But the more Trump”s approval rating hangs out around the 40 percent mark, the harder it is to imagine him attracting enough support to win reelection — especially given his inability to broaden his appeal. And as we’ve said before, Trump”s base, there won’t be enough.
