At 10:37 p.m. on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, I wrote myself an email: “Nate [Silver] and Micah [Cohen] just told me Clinton is probably going to lose, that she’s an underdog … collapse in the Midwest.” I’d been watching the… Continue Reading
For all the turmoil in the country this year, our presidential election forecast has been remarkably stable. Dating back to June 1, the first date that we ran the forecast, only two states had flipped between Donald Trump and Joe… Continue Reading
Who’s ahead in competitive districts Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. 80% of… Continue Reading
Las cosas están buscando a Halsey a medida que su estrella se eleva. Su carrera es más fuerte que nunca: en mayo de 2020, Variedad informó de que había superado los 50 millones de unidades certificadas por la RIAA y,… Continue Reading
Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split. When both… Continue Reading