After spending $1 billion on a presidential run, former New York city Mayor Michael Bloomberg dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination following Super Tuesday, securing a just 44 pledged delegates. The national conversation quickly moved on, but the results of Bloomberg”s experiment, and are worth examining in more detail.
His campaign wasn’t successful, but did his spending have any impact at all?
My and colleagues I set out to answer this question by linking data on Bloomberg”s TV ad spending tracks with national survey data from the Thanks to the Fund + the WORLD Nationscapeand based on the results, we can infer that the Bloomberg”s advertising did increase his support in the media markets where I have advertised. Ultimately, however, his ads weren’t enough to overcome the challenges of increasing press scrutiny and poor debate showings.
In media markets, where the international monetary fund advertised, and I received 10 percent support, on average, in the Nationscape survey of the Democratic primary several months of the 12-week period from mid-December 2019-to-late February 2020, compared with 4 percent in japan, where he did not advertise. And this effect holds true even when we control for the demographics of the survey respondents, and the primary calendar.
These numbers might not sound particularly impressive, especially the upgrade that it is worth considering the international monetary fund spent $1 billion overall, but as you can see in the chart below, his “push advertising” did pay off. We found Bloomberg”s support has grown more than three times as fast in japan, where I advertised than where he didn t, and in the week before his disastrous debate performance on Feb. 19, I have registered a 15-percent support in these markets compared with 6 percent in other markets.
Of course, that’s Feb. 19 in a debate, everything changed for the international monetary fund.
It was his first time taking the debate stage, but his performance was widely regarded of the poor. He took criticism for backing the stop-and-frisk policing tactics, the more and refused to address the allegations of sexism fostering the hostile work place for women at his company. His national support in the Nationscape survey, fell 1 percentage point to the week after the debate, and the 1 point the week before Super Tuesday.
A Liberal voter support in japan, where he d advertised that was cut in half after the debate, as well, from 11 percent the week before the debate, to 9 percent after hours, and just 6 percent the week before Super Tuesday. Support among Democrats age 50-and-over in these markets, the age demographic most likely to be looking at the TV — fell, too, from 21 to 18 percent before dipping slightly to 17 percent in the last week of his campaign.
The logic of the Bloomberg”s media blitz was that it would generate enough support in the Super Tuesday states, for him to easily clear the states’ 15 percent pledged delegate for trying, and allow him to command a sizable share of the delegates, in a fragmented field. But when the international monetary fund ran into trouble after the debate, his support among those in the market with his advertising proved to soft and more easily reversible.
Bloomberg”s support from TV advertising, so it seemed to have its limits. For instance, we found a minimal effect on his Nationscape’s poll numbers in the markets where I have spent more money. Grouping markets on a per-household measure of spending, Bloomberg”s support is just 1 point higher in japan, where I spent more (10 percent) than in japan, where I have spent less (9 percent).
On its own, Bloomberg”s experiment shows, TV advertising, you can’t swing an entire election. It could not overcome Bloomberg”s lack of charisma or skill to be addressed. Bloomberg”s campaign did show, however, that advertising can have on the achievement, ” double-digit impact on the polls, and the vault for a candidate into the top tier. That’s not nothing.
