Opponents of California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom needed to collect 1,495,709 valid signatures in order to trigger a recall election against him. And on April 26, the state announced that they had turned in at least 1,626,042. As a result, a statewide gubernatorial recall election (only the fourth in American history) will likely take place in the fall — but it’s not a sure bet just yet.
That’s because in 2017, Democratic legislators changed the rules to give recall supporters 30 business days to reconsider and request that their names be removed from the recall petition. (The change was an attempt to short-circuit a brewing recall effort against a Democratic state senator; however, he was recalled anyway, only to reclaim his seat in last year’s election.) So if Newsom’s supporters can convince enough recall signatories to recant by June 8, he can avoid a referendum. That said, California political observers don’t think that’s likely to happen.
It could still be a while before the recall election hits the ballot, though. If the secretary of state finds that enough signatures remain to trigger a recall, the California Department of Finance then has 30 business days to estimate the cost of the election, and the state legislature has up to 30 more days to review that estimate. Once that’s done, the lieutenant governor will schedule the recall el