This is the first in a series of articles examining-the-politics-and-demographics-of-2020 it’s expected to swing states.
For years, the united states was to what the Democrats At lucy’s football, which I was to Charlie Brown. Despite candidate from the President Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton by investing in the state, it is not the Democratic presidential candidate you have carried since it Bill Clinton, in 1996. In fact, no Democrat won a statewide election in Arizona on any level after the 2008 up to 2018, despite numerous close calls.
But Arizona is changing.
In the 2008 and 2012 presidential races, the state building, was 16 points and 13 points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, respectively. But in 2016, the President, Trump won Arizona by only 4 points, making it the state’s just about 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation. And in 2018, the four Democratic candidates broke through, and won statewide, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Now, in 2020, Joe Biden looks like he has a chance to actually win Arizona”s 11 electoral votes. As of June 29, He led the Trump by 4.7 points in our Arizona poll average. And it looks like the Democrats could flip another Senate seat here, too, the Democrat, Mark Kelly, leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by double digits in numerous polls.
Much of that is because of an extremely pro-Democratic national environment; according to our polling averages, Arizona’s is still a bit more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole (4.6 points more Republican-leaning, to be precise). But if the final election results were to exactly match our current polling averages, it would still represent the third consecutive presidential election, where in Arizona are you moved by the left.
So what’s driving this shift?
Part of it is the same, and as long as people have been predicting that blue, Arizona for years: the Latino voters. Along with the state s small, Black, and Native American populations, Hispanics constitute the Democratic base in the state of Arizona. In 2016 precinct-level regression analysis estimated that Clinton won more than 80 percent of the Latin vote in the state of Arizona. And according to an analysis from the The Center for American Progressthe share of eligible Hispanics who voted also increased, from 37 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2016.
And Arizona”s Latino population is swelling. The state has gone from 25 percent to 31 percent in Latin since the year 2000. That said, the white population share in Ari